市场成长过程的国际比较:创新扩散的视角

Cross-country comparison of market growth: an innovation diffusion perspective

利用创新扩散理论,研究同一产品(服务)在不同国家中扩散导致的不同市场成长规律。选取2002年全球无线通讯规模最大的44个国家(地区)作为研究对象,用BASS模型拟合其市场成长轨迹。研究发现,不同国家的市场成长速度随时间的变化具有不同的特点。根据模型参数的不同,将这些国家的市场成长总结为4种模式:西欧模式、北欧模式、美国模式和中国模式,并分析这4种典型模式的特点以及对管理的启示。

Based on the innovation diffusion theory, this paper analyzed paths of product market growth in different countries. Using data of mobile-phone subscriber in 44 economies, this paper depicts the evolution paths of market growth in these countries, results show that mobile phone penetration in each country follows its own path, together of which could be categorized into d modes ： American mode, north-European mode, western-European mode and Chinese mode. Comparing to other countries, product diffusion in Chinese market is far more dynamic ： growth in the beginning is slower and more stable, after the take-off, growth is more rapid and penetration of the product is more quickly.