福建省降水空间模拟模型研究

Study on spatial simulation for the precipitation of Fujian Province

应用福建省68个站点1961-1990年30 a平均降水量,建立降水空间模拟通用模型。该通用模型经交叉验证,其平均误差、平均绝对误差及平均误差平方的平方根均较距离反比法、距离平方反比法、改进的距离反比法和梯度距离平方反比法更小,具有较高的精度,模拟精度达92.01%,能较客观地反映降水与经纬度、海拔的关系,可应用于降水的空间模拟。这不仅为降水的空间模拟提供了一种新方法,而且为地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)辅助的降水空间分布规律研究、实现福建省降水格局空间模拟和为福建省降水预测提供科学依据。

Based on the data of the annual mean precipitation at 68 stations in Fujian Province from 1961 to 1990, a universal model of spatial simulation （UMSS） for the precipitation was established. The results of cross-validation showed that mean error, mean absolute error and root mean square interpolation error in it were the lowest, comparing with inverse distance method （ID）, inverse distance squares method（ IDS）, modified inverse distance method（MID） and gradient plus inverse distance squares method （GIDS） , and the accuracy was 92.01%. The UMSS could reflect the relationship among precipitation, longitude, latitude and altitude objectively, and it could be useful in the study of spatial distribution of the precipitation, as well as for forecasting precipitation in Fujian Province.