基于蜂窝单元的海上交通风险分析

Marine Traffic Risk Analysis Based on Cell Units

传统的船舶交通风险分析是将研究水域作为一个整体来评估其风险状况的。基于蜂窝单元的船舶交通风险分析,把研究水域按一定标准划分为若干地理单元,将历史数据、数学模型以及专家学者的经验和判断有机地结合起来,用以评估每一地理单元船舶碰撞和搁浅事故的概率,其输出结果以地理分布的形式突出了高风险区域。相对于传统的风险分析,该理论更能够全面、准确地描述水域的风险状况,为采纳和实施正确的安全措施提供了强有力的支持。

Traditional marine traffic risk analysis approach takes studied area as a whole when evaluating the risk level. Cell units based marine traffic risk analysis approach, which divides the studied area into a number of geographical units according to a certain criterion, combines historical data, mathematical models and consultation of the experts so as to assess the probability of ship collision and grounding in every unit. The high-risk regions will be highlighted in the form of geographical distribution in output results. Compared to traditional risk analysis, this theory may demonstrate the risk state of studied area more completely and accurately so as to provide a stronger support for the adoption and implement of right safety measures.