夏季短期电力负荷预测的MGM(1,n)建模及应用

Modeling and application of MGM(1,n) for summer short term power load forecasting

在对浙江省嘉兴市的历史气象数据进行分析的基础上,提出了一种带气象因素校正的灰色短期负荷预测模型,称为MGM(1,n)模型。实例分析表明,这种方法能较大地提高夏季短期负荷的预测精度,是预测夏季短期电力负荷的一种行之有效的方法。

Based on the analysis of the history load data in Jiaxing, a short term load forecasting gray model with weather factor emendation was proposed, which is called MGM （1 ,n） model. An example indicates that the method can highly improve the short term load forecasting precision in summer. It＇s an effective menthod for forecasting summer short term power load.