分布式水文模型构建理论与方法述评

Discussion of theory and methods for building a distributed hydrologic model

回顾了分布式水文模型的发展历程,分析总结了分布式水文模型的构建理论与方法,并对其关键内核——“物理基础”的含义做了深入而新颖的分析。分析了两类当前比较活跃的模型——分布式物理模型与分布式概念性模型中存在的问题及发展前景,并探讨了综合二者之长的具有物理基础的松散型分布式水文模型的构建思路,以及学者们期待中的基于确定性与随机性耦合的分布式水文模型。

The evolution processes of the distributed hydrologic models are reviewed, and their building ways are analyzed. The physical basis is a key kernel of the distributed hydrologic models. A new and comprehensive explanation is given for the connotation of ＂physically-based＂. Two kinds of popular models, the distributed physically-based models and the distributed conceptual models, are discussed, especially about their existing problems and future. Finally, two new promising developmental directions are discussed： one is a physically-based incompact structure distributed hydrologic model that integrates the advantages of the above two kinds of popular models; the other is a deterministic-stochastic coupled distributed hydrologic model.