辽宁装备制造业利润波动性的协整VEC模型分析

Cointegrated VEC model analysis of volatility of equipment manufacturing profit in Liaoning

通过建立VAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解的方法对辽宁省装备制造业利润增长的波动情况进行实证分析。研究结论:无论长期还是短期出口对辽宁装备制造业利润的贡献都不大,辽宁装备制造业发展与出口导向型经济增长假说不相符,而与经济增长导致出口扩张假说(GLE)相符。表明振兴辽宁装备制造业不能仅依靠出口,关键在于产品技术和组织形式的创新。

On the foundation of vector auto regression model, this paper identifies the long run equal relationship and the short run dynamic relationship, applies impulse response function and variance decomposition to make up empirical analysis,which refers to volatility of equipment manufacturing profit in Liaoning. The result shows that neither in the long run nor in the short run, the contribution of export is obvious, the development of equipment manufacturing in Liaoning does not accord with hypothesis of export-led growth, but hypothesis of GLE. The promotion of equipment manufacturing in I.iaoning needs the innovation of productive technique and organization form besides export.