表观消费量稳步增长 净进口量趋增——2006年我国柴油供需分析及2007年展望

Steady increase in consumption and expected rise in net imports——Analysis of supply and demand in the China's diesel-fuel market in 2006 and prospects for 2007

2006年我国柴油表观消费量为11646万吨,增幅为6.3%,交通运输和农业用柴油占总消费量的80%以上;柴油产量为11653万吨,增幅为5.5%,受柴汽比的制约,增速开始放缓。2006年我国柴油市场结束了2005年的价格倒挂,进口量猛增而出口量大幅下降。全年共进口柴油70.5万吨,同比上涨31.4%;出口柴油77.6万吨,同比回落47.4%。预计近期我国柴油的消费弹性系数将保持在0.8左右,2007年和2010年我国的柴油消费量将分别达到1.25亿吨和1.55亿吨。

China's diesel fuel estimated consumption rose by 6.3% to 116.46 million tons in 2006, with automotive, transport and agriculture together accounting for over 80% of the total. China's diesel fuel output in 2006 was 116.53 million tons, increasing by 5.5%——a slower pace than in the past. The upside-down (below-cost) market pricing in 2005 was reversed in 2006. 2006 also saw both a surge in diesel fuel imports to 705,000 tons, a year-over-year increase of 31.4%, and a corresponding significant reduction in exports by 47.4% to 776,000 tons. The coefficient of elasticity of diesel fuel consumption in China is estimated to remain around 0.8 for the next few years, with consumption expected to reach 125 and 155 million tons by 2007 and 2010 respectively.