用初始水权反演塔里木河水量变化趋势

Inverse Calculation of Water Quantity Change in the Tarim River According to the Initial Water Right

运用水权偏差率的概念和反演评价的思想,以塔里木河流域初始水权为“标尺”,对1957～2005年各源流汇入干流的水量进行反演分析,准确地判断各源流实际汇入干流的水量与初始水权偏差变化的转折期,并运用水权偏差率正负变化的幅度,科学定量地评价各源流完成初始水权的达标情况,为流域综合治理提供可靠的依据,也为水权管理和水量统一调度提供一套科学的评价方法。

By using the concept of water right skewness and inverse calculating analysis, this paper made an inverse calculation of the water quantity concentrated from the tributaries to the main stream of the Tarim River during the period of 1957-2005, with the initial right as a scale, so as to correctly determine the real water quantity concentrated from the tributaries to the main stream and turning period of the initial water right skewness. Otherwise, the quantitative completion of the initial water right for the various tributaries was scientifically evaluated according to the range of positive or negative change of the skewness.