人民币升值能解决美国对华贸易赤字吗?——基于1994~2005年间月度数据的贸易弹性分析

Can Revaluation of RMB Resolve US's Trade Deficit with China?——China-US Trade Elasticities Analysis Based on Monthly Data

文章以1994年1月到2005年3月的月度数据为样本,用ARDL框架下的协整方法,对中美贸易的收入弹性和实际汇率弹性进行了经验分析。分析后发现:第一,我国对美进出口的收入弹性都是显著的,并且我国对美国出口的收入弹性约为我国从美进口的收入弹性的6倍,但是我国对美进口和出口的实际汇率弹性都是不显著的。因此,文章认为人民币汇率对中美贸易没有显著影响,人民币汇率升值将无法改善美国的对华贸易收支。

Using the monthly data from 1994. 1 to 2005.3, we employ a new cointegration technique, i.e. ARDL approach to perform an empirical analysis on income elasticities and real exchange rate elasticities of the export and import functions of Sino-US trade. The results indicate that income elasticities of import and export demand for Sino-US trade are significant, and the income elasticity of the export to US is approximately as 6 times as that of import from US. However, real exchange rate elasticities of those are both not significant. So the revaluation of RMB against US dollar would not improve US＇s trade with China.