财政赤字的通货膨胀风险——理论诠释与中国的实证分析

The Inflation Risk of Financial Deficit:Theoretic Explanation and Empirical Analysis of China

财政赤字与通货膨胀的关系一直是理论界与决策部门密切关注的问题。文章在构建财政赤字与通货膨胀联系机制的理论框架基础上,结合两者在我国宏观经济运行中的客观运行轨迹,对我国财政赤字的通货膨胀风险进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,虽然我国财政赤字在不同的融资方式下均具有一定的货币扩张效应,但由于财政赤字的规模仍然在适度的范围内,财政赤字所引起的货币供给量增加幅度还不足以导致通货膨胀发生,我国财政赤字并不是通货膨胀产生的主要原因。

The relation between financial deficit and inflation is always a problem which the theorists and the decision-making department will pay close concern on. Firstly, this paper constructs a theoretical frame on the relation mechanism between financial deficit and inflation. Then, combining with our country＇s actual situation, it carries on an empirical analysis regarding the inflation risk of our country＇s financial deficit. According to the result, we find that although the financial deficit has certain currency tendency, it is not the main reason for inflation because its scale is not big enough.