我国磷肥需求预测及产业规划中应注意的问题

Prediction of China′s Demand for Phosphatic Fertilizers and Points for Attention in Industrial Planning

磷肥工业的迅猛发展对我国资源和环境产生了巨大的压力,为避免损失、提高效率,从科学的角度预测磷肥需求、指导行业健康发展是一项紧迫的任务。经过比较分析,认为与其它预测方法相比,从保持土壤肥力的角度预测中国磷肥需求更为客观。综合分析各项因素,发现中国磷肥需求最高点不应超过12500kt,2010年我国磷肥需求应控制在11000～12000kt。目前国内的供应量已经基本满足需要,不能再盲目扩大生产,国家"十一.五"发展规划中提出的14500～15100kt的目标量过高,应该适当下调。

The swift and tremendous expansion of the phosphatic fertilizer industry exerts a great pressure on the resources and environment in China, and to prevent loss and improve efficiency the urgent task is the prediction of demand for phosphatic fertilizers from a scientific viewpoint so as to guide the sound growth of the phosphatic fertilizer industry of the country. Through comparison and analysis, it is believed that, compared to other methods of prediction, that of the demand for phosphatic fertilizers in China from the viewpoint of maintenance of soil fertility is more objective. By a comprehensive analysis of all elements it is found that their maximum demand should not exceed 12 500 kt, and their demand should be controlled at 11 000 - 12 000 kt in 2010. Their domestic supply satisfies the demand at present, so no blind extension of production is to be carried out, but the target of development of 14 500- 15 100 kt proposed in the state. The National Eleventh Five-Year Development Program seems too high and should be appropriately reduced.