灰色理论在造船工序作业计划预测中的应用研究

Application Research on Grey-theory in Forecast of Shipbuilding Process Operative Plan

描述了传统造船工序作业计划管理的方法,并分析了目前工序作业计划制定方法存在的不确定性和局限性,将灰色理论的预测方法应用于造船工程项目中工序作业计划的制定,应用实例建立了分段工序作业时间的预测模型,并对模型进行了精度检验和模型精度指标评估,评价结果有效,有助于造船生产过程中更为精确的管理,提高造船企业的生产效率。

The traditional shipbuilding operative plan is described. The uncertainty and limitation in the nowaday operative plan are analyzed. The forecast method based on the grey theory is adopted in the operative plan of the shipbuilding engineering project. A forecast model about the subsection operative plan is established. With the forecast model, the accuracy checking and the evaluation on the accuracy index are made. Results show that the evaluation is effective, and the theory is helpful for the accurate management in shipbuilding and the efficiency improving for the enterprise.