沿淮淮北地区旱涝急转的成因及应对措施

Causes and countermeasures of sudden changing from drought to waterlogging in Huaibei Region

探讨了沿淮淮北地区旱涝急转问题的内涵和特性,即具有发生时间的特定性,旱灾与涝灾重点区域的弱重叠性;运用趋势分析法对该地区10个代表站30多年的逐日降水资料进行了统计分析,指出该地区近10年来暴雨频数、降水强度和短时干旱缺水概率均呈增加的趋势;认为除了这些不利的气候变化因素外,没有解决好易涝特性与其排涝能力、易旱特性与其抗旱能力之间的矛盾是造成沿淮淮北地区旱涝急转问题的主要原因;进而从工程措施和非工程措施两个方面提出了9条应对措施。

The authors discuss the meaning and characteristics of Sudden Changing from Drought to Waterlogging（SCDW） in Huaibei region along the Huai River, which include specific occurrence time and weak overlapping in focal areas hit by drought and waterlogging. The Trend Analysis is applied to investigate the daily rainfall data, which spans more than 30 years and involves 10 representative stations in this area. The results show a growing trend in rainstorm frequency, rainfall intensity and water shortage probability over the past 10 years. It is concluded that the SCDW mainly results from two unsolved contradictions in Huaibei region. One is between its waterlogging-prone character and insufficient drainage capacity, and the other is between its drought-prone character and inadequate drought relief capacity, in addition to unfavorable climate change. In the end, nine countermeasures are put forward in terms of structural and non-structural measures.