2010年和2020年全国煤炭供需预测

China's Coal Demand and Supply Forecast for the Year of 2010 and 2020

结合当前的经济发展态势,分别对2010年、2020年全国煤炭需求和供应进行了预测,并提出了相应的对策措施建议。预测2010年全国煤炭需求量为26.5亿～28.5亿t,比国家发展和改革委员会正式发布的《煤炭工业发展"十一五"规划》的26亿t多0.5亿～2.5亿t;预测2020年全国煤炭需求量为31亿～34亿t,比《煤炭工业中长期发展规划(国家发改委)》的28亿t多3亿～6亿t。预测未来15年我国需要新建和扩建煤矿规模达12亿～15亿t,其中"十一五"期间为4亿～6亿t。

Based on the trend of the economic development, the demand and supply of coal for the year of 2010 and 2020 in China are forecasted, and the relevant countermeasures and suggestions are proposed. The paper forecasts that the national coal demand in 2010 will be about 2.65-2.85 billion tons, 0.05-0.25 billion tons higher than that in the ＂11th Five-Year Development Planning of the Coal Industry＂officially published by the National Development and Reform Commission （NDRC）. The paper also forecasts that the national coal demand in 2020 will be about 3.1-3.4 billion tons, 0.3-0.6 billion higher than that in the ＂Medium and Long Term Development Planning of the Coal Industry＂ issued by NDRC. Furthermore, the paper forecasts that China will need to increase the coal production capacity by 1.2-1.5 billion tons in the next 15 years, including 0.4-0.6 billion tons during the ＂llth Five-Year＂ planning period.