基于风险的电力项目投资决策方法研究

Research on Decision Making of Electric Power Project Investment Based on Risk Control

电力工业市场化改革使电力企业成为市场主体和竞争实体,并为投资者提供了多种投资项目选择。在这种新的市场环境下,为了获得更多利润或降低项目风险,有必要对建设项目进行研究,指导投资者合理分配在各个项目的投资。从投资组合角度出发,以降低风险、保证投资成本的回收为目标,建立了求解最低风险、最大收益的多目标数学模型,利用投资学中马柯维茨模型对投资者的投资组合策略进行了初步探讨,在保证最低风险的情况下,使项目投资的期望收益最大,所得结论对投资者确定不同项目中的投资比例具有一定指导意义。

Market reform of electric power industry makes power companies key market players and competitors, and provides investors with choices of many kinds of investment. In the new environment, investors need guides to make reasonable decision on investment in each project. In the paper, a multi-objective mathematical model has been developed to minimize risk and maximize profits, aiming to reduce risk and guarantee the recovery of the investment. Preliminary discussion on investment strategy portfolio was made by using Markowitz investment model to maximize anticipated profits of the projects, from which the conclusion makes sense to the decision making on the investment proportion of various projects.