我国企业进出口行为与汇率关系的实证研究

The Empirical Research of the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Enterprises' Import & Export Activities in China

本文采用协整方法分析了人民币实际有效汇率对我国企业进出口行为的影响,进而研究了人民币实际有效汇率、GDP对进出口影响的短期动态调整机制。研究结果表明,从长期来看,进出口方程的各个经济变量之间存在协整关系,即各个变量之间存在长期均衡。这说明人民币实际有效汇率对我国进出口有一定的影响,但影响相对较小,我国汇率的变化对进出口的调节作用有限。

This paper analyzed the influence of RMB real effective exchange rate （REER） to Chinese enterprises＇ import and export activities with a co-integration testing method. Then it studied the shortterm dynamic adjustment mechanism of the impact of REER,GDP to China＇s import ＆ export, the resuits indicated that there was a co-integration relationship among the economic variables in the equation of China＇s import ＆ export,it also showed the RMB real effective exchange rate had a certain impact on China＇s import ＆ export, but the impact was relatively small in the long run. So, the regulatory effect of exchange rate on China＇s import ＆ export was limited.