“两伊问题”困扰中的美国海湾战略选择

The US Strategy in the Gulf Region within the Trap of Iran and Iraq Issues

伊战后,美国的海湾战略屡屡受挫,在中东面临危机多元化和扩散化的严重挑战。在伊拉克陷阱和伊朗核问题的双重困扰下,小布什政府及其后任可能的战略选择包括坚持原有“主导和预防行动”、采取“崩溃预防型”、恢复“稳定、威慑和遏制”、考虑“合作型秩序”等。但除非美国放弃独家主导海湾的霸权战略并调整其战略目标,否则难以在“支配”海湾地区和摆脱困境之间找到两全出路。

The US strategy in the Gulf region, seriously challenged by the diversification and proliferation of crises in the Middle East, met a series of setbacks following its military occupation of Iraq in 2003. Trapped dually by Iraqi internal chaos and Iranian nuclear issue, Bush administration and its followers will have various strategic choices, including ＂predominance and preventive maneuver＂ strategy, ＂Debacle-Prevention＂ strategy, the strategy to ＂restore stability, deterrence and containment＂, and the strategy to restore a cooperative order. The US government can hardly find a way out between the dilemma of dominating the Gulf region and being trapped, unless Bush administration abandons its hegemonic strategy and readjusts its strategic target.