风险偏好的区间值灰色模糊综合评判及其应用

Interval-value Grey Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation based on the Preference of the Risk and Its Application

由于被评判对象有时会带有某些不确定性以及信息量的多少及充分程度不同,使得这些对象在某些评判指标上属于某个评语的程度-隶属度及其对应的灰度不再是一个确定的数,常常是一个范围,针对此特点,尝试用区间值来表示灰度。引入一种反映风险偏好的风险指标,以此对评判结果灰度进行处理,定义了信息充分程度转化公式,利用其将评判结果转化为区间值集合,在此基础上建立了风险偏好的区间值灰色模糊综合评判的数学模型,并给出了它在方案优选中的应用。实例结果表明,这种方法是合理的、可行的、有效的。

The objects under evaluation may have some uncertainties and different quantity and sufficiency of information, which makes the subjection degree, the degree that the objects attributed to some evaluation and corresponding grey degree are no more a certain number but usually a range. Aiming at the characteristics, the interval numbers is proposed to present grey degree. A index of risk which reflects the decision-maker＇s preference of risk is introduced to deal with the grey degree of the evaluation .results and a formula of the sufficiency of the information is defined to transforms the results of the evaluation to a set of interval numbers,and based on this ,the mathematical model of interval-valued grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is established. At last its application to the selection of the preferred project is given. It was shown from the results that the approach may be more reasonable ,feasible and effective.