铁法大明矿煤工尘肺发病趋势的预测

STUDY ON PREVENTIVE EFFECT OF COAL WORKER'S PNEUMOCONIOSIS IN DAMING MINE OF TIEFA CORPORATION

目的预测不同年代参加接尘工作的大明矿矿工在若干年内尘肺发病人数。方法对某矿煤工尘肺和接尘矿工进行调查。以寿命表法计算不同年代参加接尘作业工人的尘肺累积发病率和年平均发病率;按期望寿命,根据工人的年龄构成进行煤工尘肺发病趋势的预测。结果该矿1959年前、1960—1964年、1965—1969年、1970—1979年四个不同年代参加接尘作业工人至2004年末的年平均发病率逐渐降低,四个年代的年平均发病率依次为0.40%、0.44%、0.06%、0.01%。其参加接尘作业工人预期发病人数分别为16.93人、7.03人、1.54人、2.18人,共27.69人,即28人。预测1964年前参加接尘作业的工人为主要发病人群,其发病人数占总发病人数的86.53%;发病人数主要集中在接尘后15年内,占总预期发病人数的79.05%。结论预测该矿未来尘肺发病人数逐渐减少,病例主要来自于1964年前参加接尘作业、年龄在60～74岁的工人;发病主要集中在今后15年内。

Objective To predict the prevalent trend of coal worker＇s pneumoconiosis（CWP） in Daming mine of Tiefa corporation. Methods The ＂questionnaire for coal worker＇s pneumoconiosis＂ and the ＂questionnaire for coal workers without pneumoconiosis＂ were used to collect the information of coal worker＇s health status. Life table was used to calculate the cumulate incident rate and average incident rate per year based on the hypothesis that the life expectancy of coal workers was as same as those of local people, we estimate the number of CWP in workers at different age who were exposed to dust in different period in the future. Results The average incidence rate of coal worker＇s pneumoconiosis were 0.40%k, 0.44%, 0.06%, and 0.01 % respectively according to the dust exposure period as follows： before 1959, 1960- 1964, 1965-1969, and 1970-1979. The incidence decreased year by year. The number of CWP workers who exposed to dust before 1959, 1960-1964, 1965-1969, and 1970-1979 were 17, 7, 2, and 2, respectively. The CWP incidence rate will begin to decrease in the future. Conclusion The results of prediction show that the old workers who were first exposed to dust before 1964 will be the main proportion of patients with CWP diagnosed in the future. In general, the number of the CWP patients will mainly in the following 15 years, and it will decrease year by year.