近期货币政策对债券市场的影响及对策

Recent monetary policies:Impacts on bond market and solutions

今年以来,央行增加了货币政策的使用频率及种类以加强宏观调控。该文认为,价格型政策更多影响的是收益率曲线的短端水平,由于流动性过剩及通胀压力的存在,下半年仍有出台紧缩政策的可能;同时利率上升会凸现商业银行的投资风险。对此,可考虑适时恢复国债期货交易,以及适时推出指数联结债券;商业银行应提高衍生品业务创新能力和风险管理能力。

Since the beginning of 2007, the central bank has increased the frequency and variety of monetary policies it uses to support the macro adjustment. The author holds that price policy exerts a larger influence on the shortend of the bond yield curve; the existence of excess liquidity and inflation pressure makes it possible for the launch of tightening policies in the second half year of 2007; and that the rise of interest rates may focus commercial banks＇ investment risks. Therefore, treasury bond futures should be resumed and index-linked bonds be introduced at a proper time; and commercial banks must beef up their capacity for innovation and risk management in the derivatives business.