摘要
基于灰色系统的建模理论，利用河西地区有关河流的径流观测资料，建立了一个ＧＭ（１，１）残差序列周期修正径流预测模型，并用于春旱缺水期３～６月河流来水量的长期预报，经生产部门验证。
Based on the modeling theory of Grey System, a predicting model used for runoff long range forecast was presented. The Grey model has been applied to re obtain the theoretic discharge of Yingluoxia Hydrometric Station in Heihe River as well as the other principal rivers in Hexi area. Compared with the runoff documents during dry period from March to June of these rivers, the mean forecasting accuracy is over 80%.
出处
《中国沙漠》
CSCD
北大核心
1997年第1期49-52,共4页
Journal of Desert Research
关键词
灰色模型
径流
长期预报
残差序列
周期修正
Grey model Runoff Long range forecast Residual error series Correction of period
