福建粮食生产对气象灾害的敏感性研究

Research on Sensitivity of Grain Yields to Meteorological Disasters in Fujian Province

根据农业生产和灾害面积数据分析发现,福建省农业成灾面积与产量成明显的反相关关系,而且气象灾害对粮食生产的影响呈范围逐年扩大、强度明显增大的趋势。气象灾害损失强度的变动必然使粮食产量产生波动,因此用剔除播种面积变化影响后的粮食产量变动率与成灾面积变化率的比值来表征粮食生产对气象灾害的敏感性。通过敏感度的计算和分析,较好地解释了20世纪80-90年代气象灾害频繁但粮食产量仍持续增长的事实,以及21世纪初粮食产量减幅与灾害强度增幅不同步的原因。

The analysis of the statistical data of grain production and disaster area from 1985 to 2004 in Fujian Province indicates that the disaster area in Fujian Province is inversely correlated with grain yields; the severity and impact of meteorological disasters on grain yields increase year by year. The sensitivity of grain yields to me- teorological disasters is studied with the ratio of the grain yield variation rate after eliminating the plating area variation to the variation rate of the disaster area. The resulting sensitivity explains well the fact that disasters increase, but grain yields increase also from the 1980s to the 1990s; and that grain yields decrease obviously, but disasters increase slightly in the early 21 century.