中国房地产行业盈余管理模型的构建及实证分析

Model Construction of Earnings Management and Empirical Analysis on China's Real Estate Industry

本文研究中国上市房地产企业的盈余管理行为。本文发现,传统应计制下的盈余管理模型无法较好地拟合中国房地产行业盈余管理的特征。在关注房地产行业经营和财务处理方面特殊之处的基础上,通过详细分析预售制度和会计处理的特点,建立了以预收账款作为被解释变量的预收模型。运用该模型对房地产行业的盈余管理行为进行了检验,其检验效果和拟合优度要优于改进的修正琼斯模型。经过实证检验,认为上市房地产企业利用预收账款,存在微弱的正向盈余操纵。

This paper focuses on the earnings management behavior of China's listed real estate firms. Based on the understanding of different accrual models and the nature of Advanced Sale System, the paper finds out that the Accrual Models are not fit for testing earnings behavior of China's listed real estate industry. Through thorough analyzing of Advance Sales System and the accounting tricks played under the system, the paper sets a new testing model named Advanced Model that uses Collection in Advanced (CIA) as its dependent variable, to test for the earnings management behavior of real estate firms. The results show that Advanced Model has a right-sign & significant coefficient and better goodness of fit than term adjusted Modified Jones model. Based on the results, the paper concludes that the listed real estate firms do use Advances to make discretion on revenues to manage earnings.