基于随机网络模拟的航天项目风险分析和评估

Risk analysis and evaluation of aerospace project based on random network simulation

鉴于各种不确定性因素对航天三项关键参量(战术技术指标,进度和费用)影响的重要性,应用随机网络理论和方法,建立了航天项目研制过程的随机网络模型,对航天项目进度风险和费用风险进行了定量化分析和研究。以一个典型航天项目为例,构建了其研制过程每一阶段的随机网络模型,并进行了求解和分析,得出了富有价值的建设性结论。

In view of the various nondeterministic risk factors have a great influence upon the three critical parameters（i, e. tactical and technical targets, progress and cost） in the aerospace projects, this paper puts forwards a random network model of aerospace project development process by using the theory and method of random network, analyses the expensie risk and the progress risk of the project. It takes a typical aerospace project for example, constructs random network model for every phase in development process, and performs derivation and analysis. Finally a valuable constructive conclusion is drawn.