外商直接投资对我国产业结构影响的实证分析——基于面板数据模型的研究

The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on the Industrial Structure in China: An Empirical Research with Panel Data

本文运用面板数据模型对1984—2003年间我国合同利用外资额和三次产业工业增加值之间的关系进行研究,发现外商直接投资对三次产业工业增加值的提高都具有正效应。再通过Chow突变检验,发现1992年前后外商直接投资对第一、三产业工业增加值提高的影响显著不同,对第二产业工业增加值提高的影响则相同。通过进一步分析,本文又发现我国外商直接投资的产业结构分布严重偏斜加重了我国产业结构的偏斜。因此,我们提出我国应该积极利用外资政策,加大外商投资的领域,加快我国产业结构的优化升级。

The paper examines the link between the inward foreign direct investment （FDI） and the industrial structure in China, by analyzing the panel data of inward FDI and industrial value-added from 1984 to 2003. The findings illustrate that FDI has positive effect on the value-added of three different industries. Further the findings also reveal that the effects on the agriculture section and service section before 1992 and after 1992 are different. Meanwhile, the effects on industry section are the same. In the end, it is also found that the asymmetric distribution of the inward FDI gives rise to the asymmetric distribution of the industrial structure.