安徽省耕地资源动态变化及驱动机制研究

Studies on Changing and Driving Mechanism of Cultivated Land Resources in Anhui Province

根据安徽省多年的统计资料[1],运用主成分分析法研究耕地的动态变化特点及动力机制。结果表明,影响安徽省耕地变化的因素有两个方面:人口社会经济因素和土地生产力要素。并在此基础上,建立多元线性回归模型,对安徽省耕地变化的趋势进行科学的预测。

Based on the statistical and survey data of Anhui Province,trend of cultivated land- use and its driving mechanism were discussed in the paper. Utilizing the principal component analytical method and analyzing driving factor that influenced farmland change of Anhui Province, the result included two factor that was population - economy and that of land productive force. A linear multi - regression model was thus made in the end, the authors tried to predict the current and quantity of the farmland change.