试论中国现行汇率制度与利率市场化之间的关系

Analysis on the Relationship between Current Exchange Rate System and Marketization of Interest Rate in China

本文首先回顾了关于利率与汇率关系的经典理论，在此基础上分析了不同经济体制下，利率与汇率的联动性，指出中国尽管已经开始改革汇率和利率，但实质上仍然实行的是固定汇率制、外汇管制较严格、利率还未完全市场化，正是在这种情况下，中国的利率与汇率机制传导不顺畅。本文基于此，实证检验了人民币汇率制度与利率的关系，发现改革开放前中国的利率与汇率之间相关性不明显；自1978年以来，人民币汇率与利率之间逐渐发生了相互作用。由此认为无论是在改革汇率制度方面，还是继续推行利率市场化方面，国家都必须考虑国内外金融市场的密切关系。

Firstly, this paper reviews the classical theories about interest rate and exchange rate, analyzes the relationship between interest rate and exchange rate under different economic system, and indicates that though we have reformed interest rate and exchange rate, we still belong to fixed exchange rate, and the government performs strict control on exchanges. The Chinese interest rate isn＇t determined by the market. This is why the interest and exchange rate system couldn＇t transmit smoothly under this mechanism. Based on these, this paper empirically exams the relationship between interest rate and exchange rate and finds that the relationship between them are not so obvious before the ＂open door＂ policy implemented. The interest rate and exchange rate have taken effect gradually since 1978. Therefore, the government must take the compactness of domestic and foreign financial markets into consideration no matter on exchange rate system reformation or on the implementation of marketization of interest rate.