我国政府支出对居民消费产生引致还是挤出效应——基于可变参数模型的分析

China Government Expenditure Crowds In or Crowds Out Household Consumption

本文利用可变参数模型对我国1978～2004年的数据进行了动态分析,结果表明:从总体上分析,在大多数年份政府支出对居民消费产生引致效应;从结构上分析,政府投资性支出对农村居民消费和城镇居民消费产生了挤出效应;从1998年开始,政府消费性支出对农村居民消费和城镇居民消费产生了引致效应;政府转移性支出在大多数年份对农村居民消费和城镇居民消费产生了引致效应。

The paper makes use of Time-varying Parameter Model to analyze the dynamic effect of China government expenditure on household consumption from 1978 to 2004. As a whole, government expenditure crowds in household consumption in most years. Analysing from structure, government capital expenditure crowds out rural household consumption and urban household consumption; Government consumption expenditure crowds in rural household consumption and urban household consumption from 1998; Government transfer expenditure crowds in rural household consumption and urban household consumption in most years.