汇率制度的经济绩效研究:理论、实证文献及启示

Research on Exchange Rate System Economic Performance:Theory,Practical Documents and Enlightenment

汇率制度的经济绩效是汇率制度选择的一个重要依据。在研究汇率制度与通货膨胀、汇率制度与经济增长以及汇率制度与货币危机之间的关系方面,存在各种不同的理论和实证研究。理论和实证文献的分析表明:固定汇率制的反通胀绩效要超过浮动汇率制度,但优势并不明显;从长期看,实际经济增长可能并不与汇率制度系统相关;汇率制度与金融危机没有必然的对应关系,但是在放松资本管制的条件下,钉住汇率制往往放大了外部冲击的影响,导致货币危机的“传染效应”。

The economic performance exchange rate is an important basis for exchange rate system choice. There are various theories and empirical study in researching the relationships between exchange rate system and inflation, exchange rate system and economic growth, exchange rate system and currency crisis. A conclusion can be drawn through theoretical and empirical documentary analysis that performance of anti - inflation in the fixed exchange rate system is better than that in floating exchange rate system, but the advantages in the former are not clear. In the long - run, the real economy growth will not necessarily be related with exchange rate system. There is no inevitable responding relationships between the exchange rate system and financial crisis, but under deregulation of capital, the fixed peg regime always expands the impact of external assault, leading to currency crisis ＂contagion effect＂