用贝叶斯方法确定单桩竖向承载力

DETERMINING THE VERTICAL CAPACTTY OF A SINGLE PILE BY BAYESIAN APPROACH

单桩竖向承载力的确定是桩基础设计的重要内容。通常采用经验法或试桩法来确定单桩承载力。当试桩数量过少时，度桩法并不十分可告。贝叶斯方法可以将有限的试桩数据与间接经验结合起来，以提高参数估计的精度并以预制桩为例。

It is important to determine the vertical capacity of a sinle pile in the design of pile foundations. Ordinarily, the empirical based method or the method based on pile tests is used to predict the bearing capacity of a single pile. The results of testing on a few piles show the method based on pile tests is not reliable. The Bayesian approach can combine the testing piles datas with indirect experiences and improve the accuracy of the estimation for a parameter.The bayesian approach to the estimation of the vertical capacity of a sinle prefabriate pile is disscussed.