中国信用规模与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于1986～2004年的协整分析

An Empirical Research in the Relationship between Credit Scale and Economic Growth in China

本文以中国经济改革和金融发展为背景,运用协整检验和误差纠正模型对中国信用规模与经济增长的长期稳定关系进行研究。协整分析结果表明,GDP与信用总规模之间存在协整关系,信用总规模对经济增长的拉动作用明显;GDP与金融信用、企业信用和政府信用规模之间同样存在协整关系,GDP与金融信用和企业信用规模有较强的正向关系,但是GDP与政府信用规模之间存在负向关系。此外,误差纠正模型结果表明,校正作用较为明显。

This paper analyzes the long-term equilibrium relationship between credit scale and economic growth in China against the background of Chinese economic reform and financial development by using co-integration test and VEC model approach. The research reveals that GDP and total credit scale are co-integrated, and total credit scale has an evident pulling function on economic growth; GDP, financial credit scale, enterprise credit scale, government credit scale are also co-integrated, and there is a positive relationship between GDP and financial credit scale, and between GDP and enterprise credit scale; but a negative relationship between GDP and government credit scale is found. In addition, VEC model results show that the corrective function is evident.