改进的灰色马尔柯夫模型预测采煤工作面瓦斯涌出量

Predict gas emissing quantity of mining coal face with improved Grey Markov model

以预测工作面绝对瓦斯涌出量为研究目的,通过对回采工作面瓦斯涌出量原始数据取自然对数为基础,建立改进的GM(1,1)模型,然后将其与马尔柯夫模型相结合,建立了改进的灰色马尔柯夫模型,并将该模型应用到中岭煤矿首采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测分析中.结果表明,灰色马尔柯夫模型预测工作面瓦斯涌出量拟合精度较好,结果正确可靠,有一定的普遍应用性.

In order to predict the absolute gas emissing quantity of mining coal face, the improved grey model GM （ 1, 1 ） was built based on dealing with the initial data of the gas emissing quantity of mining coal face by natural logarithm. The improved Grey Markov prediction mode was built through uniting the improved grey model （ 1, 1 ） and the Markov model. Use this model to analyze and predict the the gas emissing quantity of the first mining coal face in Zhongling Mine. It shows that the forecast result of Grey Markov prediction model has better fitting precision and correct dependability. It has certain general employing.