均衡汇率理论和政策新框架的再探索

Theory and Policy: A Further Research on the New Framework of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate

人民币汇率水平问题已成为国内外关注的焦点。人民币汇率水平屡有争议的原因之一是缺乏一个基于国情的汇率政策理论框架。本文从汇率既有比价属性又有杠杆属性出发,先以汇率和物价建立了一个基本模型,然后建立了汇率和以劳动生产率为代表的全要素生产率之间的关系,最后通过汇率变动与外延经济增长和内涵经济增长相互关系的分析,初步构建了一个人民币长期均衡汇率的理论框架。本文的许多观点、分析、结论还有待进一步的实证和社会调查数据的支持。

The level of the RMB exchange rate has been highly disputed in recent years. One reason for the disputes is probably the lack of a theoretic framework that fits well into China＇s social and economic situations. This article aims at establishing such a framework. It begins with identifying the functions of the RMB exchange rate, then analyses the relations of the exchange rate and productivity, and finally establishes a theoretic model that orovides an anchor for the long-term RMB exchange rate oolicy.