无偏等维新息模型在路基沉降预测中的应用

Application of Unbiased New Information Model of Equal Dimension in Settlement Prediction of Roadbed

在分析了传统GM(1,1)模型和无偏灰色预测模型的基础上提出了无偏等维新息预测模型,通过运算得出最佳预测值以及预测的最佳维数区,并采用后验差方法对模型的精度进行检验。通过对某高速公路实测沉降数据的分析,证明该模型样本需求量小、计算简单、能动态地反映出实测数据的内在规律,并使预测精度得到有效的提高。证明了将无偏等维新息模型用于预测高速公路路堤沉降量的可行性,在实际运用过程中,为了获得更加准确的结果应不断带入新近的实测数据。

After analyzed the traditional GM （1,1） gray model and unbiased gray model, the unbiased new information model of equal dimension is promoted. The optimal prediction value and the optimal dimension are calculated and the post-error method is used to examine the precision of the model. It states through calculation and analysis for the sample that the size of model sample is small, the calculation of model is easy, and the internal laws of the sample can be reflected dynamically, so the forecasting precision can be improved efficiently, and in order to gain more accurate results, the new updated data should be added to the model.