土壤湿度——一个跨季度降水预测中的重要因子及其应用探讨

Soil Moisture——An Important Factor of Seasonal Precipitation Prediction and Its Application

阐述了土壤湿度对短期气候变化的重要作用,结合我国的业务现状提出亟需将这一因子应用于跨季度降水预测。通过将一个土壤湿度反演模型引入IAP跨季度气候预测系统,探讨了土壤湿度应用于季节降水预测的可行性及其效果。初步的个例分析表明:前期土壤湿度的异常分布对降水变化有较显著的影响,继续改进土壤湿度反演模型可望获得更好的降水预测效果。同时,提出的基于常规气象观测进行反演以获得大范围土壤湿度分布的办法在当前业务预测中具有很强的可操作性。

Necessity of applying soil moisture to seasonal precipitation prediction is emphasized through addressing the importance of soil moisture to short-term climate change. Impacts of soil moisture on seasonal precipitation are studied by introducing a soil moisture retrieving scheme into an operational prediction model. The results show that soil moisture anomaly could exert distinct influence on precipitation change while better precipitation simulation/prediction could be expected with the improvement of retrieved data. It is pointed out in particular that the scheme suggested in this work, which gets regional distribution of soil moisture based only on available observations is easy to be used for operational purpose.