商品住房价格变动及回归分析-以中国东部16个地区为例

The Fluctuation and the Regression Analyses of Housing Price in East China

以中国东部16个地区为例，首先探讨了商品住房价格变动的特点和空间差异，结果发现：1999～2002年这些地区住房价格的总体水平大体一致，略有上浮；16个地区按照住房价格的高低，分为三个档次：青岛、济南、海口、福州、宁波、石家庄、天津七个地区的房价水平相对较低；大连、沈阳、杭州、南京、厦门五个地区的房价水平大体上处在中间层次；上海、广州、北京、深圳四个地区的房价水平相对最高．在此基础上，本文又选用若干指标，就地区经济发展水平同商品住房价格之间的关系作了进一步的量化分析，即利用逐步回归的方法，建立了比较理想的回归模型，以期为分析判断地区商品住房价格的宏观走势提供部分依据．

Taking sixteen regions in east China as examples ,the paper discusses the characteristics and the space diversity of the fluctuation of the housing price firstly. And it concludes ：the fluctuation of the housing price in these regions is not large as a whole during 1999-2002 according to the housing price, regions can be divided into three orders. Moreover, the paper analyzes the relationship between housing price and regional economic development level and constructs some regression models, making use of the method of the stepwise regression.