基于电网状态评估的风险防范管理体系应用研究

Application research of risk management system based on condition assessment of power grid

基于对电力设备技术参数、试验数据、负载、环境、外观、故障、缺陷等信息,运用设备、材料老化,其使用寿命随着投运年限的增长而减少的工程学原理,结合设备运行情况,综合分析可能影响设备运行状态的因素,最终得出量化数值(健康指数、使用寿命和故障率)来表征每台设备在当前和未来健康状况的风险防范管理体系。实践表明,电网风险防范管理体系有助于供电企业制订技术改造的优化方案,对各种投资方式下技术改造方案进行风险评价,为企业的正确决策提供有力的依据。

Based on the information, such as technical parameters of power equipment, test data, load, environment, appearance, fault and defect, and ageing of equipment and material, and combined with equipment operation condition and the integration analysis of factors affected by equipment operation state, the quantification values, such as healthy index, service life and fault rate, were reached eventually to symbolize the risk management system in current and future healthy condition for each equipment. The practice shows that this system is helpful for the enterprise of power supply to work out the optimization scheme of technical retrofit, for risk evaluation of various investment in the technical retrofit scheme, and for decision making of enterprise to offer the strong basis.