消费行为、产出变化与经常项目动态

Consumption Behavior, Production Change and Current Account Dynamics

国内吸收法认为,当国内需求没有完全吸收其产出时,就会通过净出口产生贸易顺差。中国持续的经常项目顺差似乎与消费需求不足有关。收入是决定居民消费需求的最基本因素之一。本文通过实证分析我国居民的消费与收入变化的关系来考察我国居民的消费需求,结合国内吸收法的思想来分析我国的经常项目动态。

Absorption approach thinks that one country will have trade surplus through net export if the country＇ s interior demand doesn＇ t absorb its production. China＇ s lasting current account surplus seems to be related to the lack of consumption demand. Income is one of the most basic factors deciding consumption demand. This paper uses empirical methods to analyze the relationship between people＇ s consumption and income in China, and combine absorption approach idea to analyze current account dynamics of China.