福建森林资源发展趋势的灰色预测

The Gray System Prediction of Fujian Forest Resources Development Tendency

本文应用灰色系统理论与方法,以福建省森林资源连续清查与复查数据为基础,建立全省森林资源灰色动态变化预测的GM(1.1)模型,对我省森林资源的主要指标:森林覆盖率、有林地面积、活立木总蓄积量、用材林蓄积量(其中包括近成过熟林蓄积量和松木近成过熟林蓄积量)发展趋势,进行了科学的预测。 灰色预测结果,除近成过熟蓄积量外,其它项目预测精度高,切合我省森林资源发展变化实际,应作为福建省森林资源监测体系的组成部分,为宏观决策提供科学依据。

On the basis of data obained thriugh continuous survey of Fujian forest resources, and using the gray system theory and method, the auther has established the G (1.1) model of the the gray system, tendencies change predietion of Fujian province forest resources. Such as the development tendency / of the precentage of forest-cover, the area of forested land, the total stores (forest volume), the stores of timber forest involving the forest volume of adolescent,climax leaves and oldest vlimax leaves, and that of pine trees. The resujts of the gray system prediction exactly represent the facts of development change of Fujian province forest resources except for the forest volume of adolescent, climax leaves and oldest leaves. and the author suggest that be considered a component part of the monitoring system of Fujian province forest resources so as to supply scientific basis for grand decision.