组合模型在江苏能源消费预测中的应用

Application of Combination Model in the Forecasting of Jiangsu Province's Energy Consumption

鉴于能源消费系统的复杂性及非线性的特征,先利用江苏省能源消费量的历史数据,分别采用灰色预测模型和非线性模型预测了江苏省2004-2015年的能源消耗量,并对单项模型的优缺点进行了比较分析。然后,采用最小化方差的办法进行权重分配,建立了江苏省未来能源消费量的组合预测模型,并应用该模型对江苏省2004-2015年的能源消费量又进行了预测。结果表明,与单项预测模型相比,组合模型的预测精度高,预测结果更加可靠。

In view of the complexity and non - linearity of energy consumption system, firstly, based on historical data of Jiangsu Province＇s energy consumption, this paper respectively applies grey forecasting and non - linear models to forest Jiangsu Province＇s energy consumption in each years from 2004 to 2015, and analyzes and compares the advantages and the disadvantages of these models; then, establishes a combination forecasting model of energy consumption in future for Jiangsu Province＇s by minimi- zing standard variance to allocate the weights, and applies this model to forecast Jiangsu Province＇s energy consumption in each years from 2004 to 2015. The result shows that the combination forecasting model is of higher precision and more reliability comparing with the grey fomenting and non -linear models.