地位指数曲线时间序列建模及其应用的研究

A Study of Modeling Time Series of the Site Index Curve and Its Application

本文根据时间序列分析的理论,对闽北杉木中心产区的杉木平均优势木解析木的5至12年的树高值序列,进行动态数据处理,建立比较可靠的时间序列模型。然后利用所建立的时间序列模型,对13至22年的地位指数时间序列值进行预测,得出相应年龄的地位指数值。最后,求算5至22年的地位指数时间序列各年龄的估测误差,以此确定估测精度最高的杉木地位指数曲线。

Based on the theory of time series analysis, a reliable model of time series was developed to engae in dynamic processing con erning data the height series of the mean dominant analysis stem which ages 5 to 12 years in the growing areas of North Fujian and to obtain appropiate values of the site index. And as a result, the estimated errors of the various ages for the site inder time series aged 5 to 22 years were calculated and the site index curve with the highest estimating precision was thus determined.