孤立发电系统的可靠性区间评估

An interval approach for evaluating isolated generating system reliability

考虑发电系统原始参数具有不确定性,结合概率论和区间运算概念,提出了一种孤立发电系统的可靠性区间评估方法。它不但可以处理可靠性原始参数的不确定性对发电系统可靠性指标的影响,还可以求出参数在一定范围内变化时的系统可靠性指标区间值,更能体现出系统可靠性的真实性。最后采用一个三机的算例对所提方法的正确性进行了验证,并对采用点值与采用区间数得到的发电系统可靠性评估结果进行了对比分析,进一步说明了该方法的有效性。

Based on the description of the uncertainty of prime parameters about generation system using probalistic method and interval operation, an interval evaluation method, which can take into account the uncertainty of the parameters and is able to give all possible solutions, is presented for evaluating isolated generating system reliability. The effectiveness of this method has been proved using a test example. And the comparison between point evaluation and interval evaluation is made as well.