辽宁省近10年短期气候预测质量评估检验

Quality Assessment Test on Short-term Climate Prediction of Liaoning Province for the Recent 10 years

参考了现阶段国内外的短期气候预测质量评估办法,根据短期气候预测业务的发展需要,提出了一种新的短期气候预测质量评估办法,并对近10年(1994年以来)辽宁省短期气候预测资料进行客观评定,把原办法的评定结论与之对比分析。结果表明:新办法的指导思想、评分原理以及预报评分规则和标准等方面均优于原办法,更符合实际,客观性更强,突出了气候预测的趋势性,提高了异常事件趋势的预测能力,能更好地反映当前短期气候预测业务水平。在绝大多数情况下,新办法评定的月、季、年尺度气候预测质量较原办法有明显提高,其中,全年降水预测质量平均提高4%,平均气温预测质量平均提高9%,所以新办法客观地评定更有利于促进短期气候预测质量和服务水平的提高。

Based on domestic and foreign short-term climate forecast quality appraisal method at the present stage, according to operation development needs, a new quality appraisal method for short-term climate forecast was put forward, the nearly 10 years short-term climate forecast results for Liaoning Province since 1994 were evaluated objectively by using the new method. By contrast with the original appraisal conclusion, the results show that the new method is superior to the original one, and can well reflect the level of current short-term clirnate forecast.