应用灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型预测河流水质

Application of information renewal GM(1,1) model in the prediction of water quality in the river

由于常规GM(1,1)模型进行预测时,精度较高的仅是最近的几个数据,越往未来发展,该模型预测的精度也就越弱。针对常规GM(1,1)模型存在的不足,运用灰色系统理论,建立了灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)河流水质预测模型,对该模型的精度以及误差进行了分析,并利用该模型对某地区河流的水质进行了预测。计算机实际模拟证明:灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型能够明显地提高预测精度,增加预测的可靠程度,从而实现河流水质的早期预测评估。

As ordinary GM （1,1） model is only useful for short - term prediction than medium and longterm. In view of the deficiency of the GM （ 1,1 ） model, an information renewal GM（1,1） predicting model of water quality is established. The modeling method and test and evaluation to the error precision of GM （1,1） are researched. The model is applied to predict some fiver quality. The results of simulation indi- cate that the information renewal GM （ 1,1 ） predicting model can obviously improve the precision of forecasting, increase the reliability of prediction. So it can do the early forecast and evaluation to pollutant concentration of fiver.