收入风险对居民耐用品消费的影响

The Effects of Income Risks on Durables Consumption in China:An Empirical Examination

本文首次采用大型微观家庭面板数据对我国城乡居民的耐用品消费进行深入研究,主要结论包括:(1)改革进程方面,20世纪90年代中后期国企转制和员工下岗等就业体制方面的重大变革,使居民"收入风险"显著上升,进而明显抑制了城乡家庭的耐用品消费。(2)城乡对比方面,农村家庭面临更高的收入风险,其消费决策对风险因素也更为敏感,因此在当前的"新农村"建设中,建立健全农业保险和农村就业保障体系,对于提高农民消费和福利水平意义重大。(3)本文的研究结果完全支持(S,s)理论模型;同时在收入风险的度量和代理变量选取方面,文章中的一些分析方法也可以应用于汽车、住房等相关领域的研究和政策评价。

This paper analyzes the effect of income risks on household durables consumption in China. Some radical reforms implemented in late 1990s have induced millions of layoffs and sharply increased people＇ s income uncertainty in China. With the CHNS micro-database and （S, s） model, it is found that the reform-induced income risk has significantly depressed household durables consumption, and the rural households are more vulnerable to income risks compared with their urban counterparts. This paper confirms the theoretical predictions of （S, s） model and provides some policy implications for future reforms.