东亚经济周期协动的研究

The Empirical Study of Business Cycle Co-movement in East Asia

本文认为,东亚经济周期的波动较大,周期的同步性和协动性较低,并且低于欧盟的协动程度。而且从东亚的次区域进行考察,东亚并不存在明显的几个同步的经济周期的次区域,只是东盟之间存在经济周期的长期协整关系和短期的调整机制。因此,从最优货币区理论的经济周期一体化标准看,东亚组成货币联盟的成本较高。

This Paper Analysised East Asia＇s Business Cycle Stylizing Facts and Business Cycle Co-movement. The Results Indicate East Asia＇s Business Cycle Fluctuated Highly, and Have Low Business Cycle Synchronization and Co-movement Which is Lower Than European Union. Moreover, Sub-Regions in East Asia don＇t Exist Obvious Synchronized Business Cycle, Only Asean Have Long Term Co-integration Relation and Short Term Adjustment Mechanism. Consequently, East Asia Will Have High Cost When Constitute Currency Union.