内生性经济增长的实证研究

Empirical Research on Endogenous Economic Growth in China

传统的认识是我国高速经济增长主要由固定资本投资拉动。本文针对这一观点做出深入考证,利用最近9年各省经济发展的数据,使用比前人更加严格实证分析方法,探讨了人力资本、固定资产投资和经济增长之间的关系。结果与传统认识大相径庭,虽然简单的回归分析发现固定资本投资对经济增长的确有重大影响,但是进一步的实证分析发现人力资本才是根本因素,初始人力资本存量较高的地区吸引流向该地区的固定资产投资,通过这种间接作用,推动地区经济的增长。在考虑了人力资本这一作用后,固定资本投资的作用不再明显。这一发现证明我国最近几年的经济增长的质量已有很大提高,在走向内生性经济增长的模式,即以人力资本为根本动力的增长,固定资本投资具有内生性。

In response to the rising concern about whether China＇ s rapid economic growth is sustainable or not, we study the pattern of China＇ s provincial economic growth under the belief that physical capital investment may be an endogenous factor of the long - term growth. We carefully utilize the empirical measurement for human capital, and estimate an instrumental variable two stage least square model to examine the structural relationship between human capital, physical capital investment and economic growth. The results suggest that the initial high human capital level of a province attracts future physical capital investment flowing to the province and drives economic growth. Thus, human capital is an important determinant of the provincial economic growth, although its effect is indirect through physical capital investment decisions. Physical capital investment is endogenous. China＇ s economic growth pattern in recent years has already appeared to some degree of endogenous growth.