石太客运专线客流预测研究

Analysis on Passenger Flow Forecast of Shijiazhuang-Taiyuan Passenger-dedicated Line

利用改进的重力模型和灰色理论模型,从石太客运专线的本线客流、跨线客流和诱增客流3个方面,分别以客运通道周边城市的GDP和人口分布密度、石太客运通道既有线的旅客运输量、城市间的加权运行时间为影响因子,对石太客运专线的旅客运输量进行预测分析。预测结果为客运专线合理制定运输组织方案、设计车站规模提供了科学依据。

By using the improved gravity model and gray theory model, the essay makes forecast analysis on future passenger traffic volume of Shjiazhuang- Taiyuan passenger-dedicated line from three aspects, including passenger flow of local line, passenger flow originating from other railways and induced passenger flow, and using GDP and population density of surround cities along the passenger corridor, the passenger traffic volume on existing line of Shijiazhuang --Taiyuan passenger corridor and the weighted operation time between cities as impact factors respectively. The forecast result provides scientific basis for establishing a reasonable transport organization plan and designing the size of stations on this railway.