中国经济面临的转折及其对发展和改革的挑战

The Turning Point Faced by the Chinese Economy and the Challenge It Presents to Development and Reform

本文用中国经济发展经验扩展和修正了刘易斯模型,并以之作为分析框架,描述了改革开放期间中国特色的二元经济发展路径和推动经济增长的主要因素,揭示了改革开放的制度变革效应,如何通过人口红利的利用、比较优势的发挥、全要素生产率的改进和参与经济全球化,促进了中国经济的高速增长。本文还通过观察劳动力供给和需求的最新变化,对中国经济发展阶段的重要转折点做出预测,分析了在这一转折点到来之际,制度创新和政策调整将面临哪些挑战,以及如何应对这些挑战,以保持经济增长的可持续性。

On the basis of the experience of China's economic development,this paper develops and revises Lewis' model.Using the model as an analytical framework,the author describes China's distinctive two-track economic development path and the main factors behind economic growth during the period of reform and opening-up and reveals the effects of institutional reform.China's demographic bonus,utilization of comparative advantage,upgrading of total factor productivity and participation in globalization have fostered high-speed economic growth.Taking account of the latest changes in labor supply and demand,the author predicts the advent of an important turning point for China's economic development and analyzes the challenges this change presents to institutional innovation and policy readjustment.He also advances some measures to handle the challenges and maintain sustainable economic growth.