麻疹减毒活疫苗抗体衰减趋势的幂曲线模型拟合及抗体持久性预测研究

Study on the Establishment Power Curve Model of Antibody Attenuation Trend of the Measles Live Vaccine and Prospect for the Antibody Permanence of the Vaccine by Model

目的建立接种麻疹减毒活疫苗(MV)后抗体水平变化趋势的幂曲线模型,预测抗体水平的持久性,缩短接种MV后抗体免疫持久性的实际观察时间。方法利用已追踪观察5年以上的资料,拟合接种MV后抗体水平变化趋势的幂曲线模型,与实测值进行比较,以验证模型的可靠性,再用所拟合的模型来预测接种MV后抗体水平的持久性。结果用幂曲线所拟合的模型为:Y^=90.95X-0.61,决定系数R2=0.997,误差E=0.003;预测接种MV后第24年时的血凝抑制(HI)抗体几何平均滴度为1∶2.87。结论所拟合的模型具有较好的适配性,预测接种MV免疫成功后的HI抗体可维持24年以上。

Objective To shorten the observing time of the antibody attenuation trend after the measles live vaccine being inoculated,a power curve model of antibody level trend has been established and the antibody permanence been prospected in the paper. Methods A historical data followed for 5 years has been used for establishing a power curve model. The reliability of the model is tested by actual data. The model is used for prospecting the antibody attenuation trend as well. Results The power curve model is Y=90.95X^-0.61 ;the correlation coefficient square R^2 is 0. 997;the error E is 0. 003;and the GMT is 2.87. The GMT level has been maintained above 1 ： 2 after the vaccine has been inoculated for 24 years. Conclusion The prospect data calculated by the model is in accordance with the actual one. Therefore it is expected that the HI be lasted for over 24 years after the inoculation of the measles live vaccine.